Jake Loewenstern - "The Challenge of Volcano Monitoring, Eruption Forecasting, and Protecting Vulnerable Populations"

Abstract: The Challenge of Volcano Monitoring, Eruption Forecasting, and Protecting Vulnerable Populations

Equally beautiful, awe-inspiring, resource-rich, and dangerous, volcanoes compel us to approach, forcing us to marvel at their grandeur while we shrink from their menace. Professionals who work on volcanoes must balance a passion for knowledge with the sobering recognition that they sometimes have limited ability to forecast eruption scenarios on a timescale useful to vulnerable populations.  Moreover, scientists play only a limited role in civil protection such that it is crucial to plan and practice with those land managers, local authorities, and emergency responders who are ultimately responsible for public safety during volcanic unrest and eruption.  The relatively long dormancy of many volcanoes makes this especially difficult: decision makers and those at risk are often unfamiliar with the volcanic scenarios about which they must sometimes make life-and-death decisions. 
At any given time, about 50 volcanoes are actively or intermittently erupting around the world.   Yet some countries with active volcanoes also have minimal monitoring and forecasting experience.  The international science community has tools, knowledge, and experience to assist, but the long reaction time can prevent timely support. Moreover, local authorities may be resistant to accepting advice from overseas experts they’ve never met.
Dr. Lowenstern will present a wide-ranging overview of volcanoes and the intersection of science, decision-making, and public safety. The presentation will address the following questions: 1) What causes volcanism? 2) How do we assess the long-term risk from volcanoes? 3) What are volcanic hazards and how do their impacts vary? 4) What techniques do we use to track the lead-up to eruptions? 5) How do we forecast eruptions? 6) How does science contribute to decision-making when lives are at risk?  And 7) What are the critical factors that ensure vulnerable populations remain safe?  These topics will be illuminated with real-world examples from volcanoes around the globe.